Tilray Brands (TLRY) has never been a one-note company. It straddles cannabis, craft beverages, hemp-based wellness, and even entertainment — building a portfolio that spans more than 40 brands across 20 countries. Yet, for all its global reach, TLRY stock often behaves like a risky roll of the dice.

Last week, TLRY stock ripped more than 70% higher before paring back some of the gains by Friday, Aug. 15. The spark came from President Donald Trump floating the idea of reclassifying marijuana to Schedule III. That’s a seismic shift that could unlock broader medical use, loosen restrictions, and finally bring cannabis companies out of regulatory purgatory. Meanwhile, Tilray deepened its European footprint, collaborating with Italian pharma player Molteni, underscoring its ambition beyond North America.

So, given Tilray's volatility — tangled in speculation, partnerships, and politics — is TLRY stock still signaling a buy for investors? Or is it better left on a cautious wait-and-watch hold?

About Tilray Stock

Canada-based Tilray Brands has evolved into one of the world’s largest cannabis companies by revenue, standing at the crossroads of innovation and disruption. Following its 2021 merger with Aphria, the company expanded its horizons under CEO Irwin Simon, blending medical cannabis, wellness products, and craft beverages into a diversified portfolio.

Operating across 20 countries, Tilray’s global footprint and bold acquisitions have positioned it as a dynamic player in the rapidly shifting cannabis and alternative wellness space. Its current market capitalization sits at $1.16 billion.

TLRY stock has been a tale of extremes, mirroring the turbulence of the cannabis sector itself. Once a market darling after its 2018 debut, shares have steadily eroded, falling 45% over the past 52 weeks and down 23% year-to-date (YTD) as investors question its acquisition-driven strategy and mounting losses. Pressure mounted further recently when Tilray disclosed that it sought a Nasdaq compliance extension, amplifying concerns about financial durability.

Yet, recently, sentiment around Tilray has flipped dramatically. Riding a wave of speculation and fresh catalysts, TLRY stock has climbed 66% in the past month and delivered a staggering 127% surge in three months.

The rally accelerated on Aug. 13, when shares spiked more than 31% following news of a strategic partnership to expand its medical cannabis footprint in Italy. Adding fuel to the momentum, growing optimism over potential cannabis reclassification has injected new life into the broader sector, positioning Tilray at the center of investor excitement.

TLRY stock is priced at just 1.53 times forward sales, sitting below both its sector peers and its own historical median — a valuation gap that hints at untapped potential, if the growth story holds steady.

A Closer Look at Tilray’s Q4 Results

Tilray Brands’ fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, released July 28, painted a picture of a company caught between ambition and uncertainty. Revenue slipped 2.4% year-over-year (YOY) to $224.5 million, missing estimates, while net loss widened to $1.30 per share, a steep drop from the $0.04 loss a year earlier. Adjusted EPS fell 50% YOY to $0.02, a reminder that profitability still lies somewhere down the road.

The cannabis segment took the heaviest hit. Net revenue dropped to $67.8 million in Q4, reflecting Tilray’s strategic decision to protect margins by raising selling prices and pulling back from lower-yield categories. For fiscal 2025, cannabis net revenue declined 9% YOY, dragged by delays in international medical permits and a conscious retreat from vapes and wholesale channels — moves that shaved roughly $15 million off sales but preserved long-term margins.

Despite the misses and dips, there were bright spots. Tilray’s international cannabis business surged 71% YOY, hitting a record $22.4 million in Q4, proof that global expansion is gaining traction. At the same time, gross margins improved meaningfully to 44% in Q4 and 40% across fiscal 2025, showcasing tighter cost discipline and operational efficiencies.

On the broader revenue front, Tilray delivered a record $821 million in fiscal 2025, up 4% annually, thanks largely to diversification. With the Canadian market oversaturated and sales slowing, and U.S. legalization still frozen, Tilray leaned on non-cannabis streams like beverages, wellness, and distribution, which made up nearly 70% of total revenue.

Beverages soared 19% YOY to $240.6 million in fiscal 2025, propelled by acquisitions from Anheuser-Busch (BUD) and Molson Coors (TAP), cementing Tilray as one of America’s biggest craft brewers. Hemp-based THC drinks and wellness products climbed 9% to $60.5 million, strengthening Tilray’s grip on the hemp market with 60% U.S. share and 80% Canadian share.

Looking ahead, Tilray expects adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 to land between $62 million and $72 million, implying growth of 13% to 31% annually. A lot hinges on Project 420, Tilray’s initiative to integrate its craft beer assets, streamline operations, and expand its global supply chain. If executed well, the plan could unlock efficiency gains and strengthen the firm's cultivation footprint across key markets.

Tilray’s road ahead is not expected to be smooth — at least not in the near term. Analysts monitoring the company expect losses to be -$0.03 per share in Q1 fiscal 2026, with full-year losses projected to deepen to -$0.11 per share, marking a sharp YOY decline. But there is light further down the road. By fiscal 2027, losses are forecast to shrink 45% YOY to $0.06 per share. Tilray’s turnaround may be slow, but it is not stalling.

Is Tilray’s Two-Pronged Push a Catalyst or a Mirage?

If Trump follows through on moving marijuana to Schedule III, the ripple effects for the struggling and loss-making Tilray could be immense. Such a shift would acknowledge cannabis’ medical value, remove it from the same legal cage as heroin, and lower barriers for research, prescribing, and financing.

For Tilray, it could mean smoother regulatory pathways, expanded access to U.S. markets, and a surge of institutional investment once the stigma lifts. The move would not immediately erase challenges, but it could reshape the growth story for cannabis operators, and place Tilray in prime position to capitalize.

Adding to the momentum, the strategic partnership with Molteni aims to expand cannabis extract availability and strengthen medical cannabis education across Europe, potentially deepening Tilray’s foothold in a fast-growing therapeutic market while reinforcing its leadership in the European cannabis landscape.

What Do Analysts Expect for Tilray Stock?

The consensus rating on TLRY stock remains at a “Moderate Buy” based on the eight analysts with coverage. Among them, three recommend a “Strong Buy,” while the remaining five analysts advise a “Hold” rating.

Wall Street is not promising fireworks just yet. Tilray’s recent dips have bruised sentiment, but whispers of a rebound linger. With a mean price target of $1.27, TLRY has a rebound potential of 13% from the current levels. Meanwhile, the $3 Street-high target implies the stock could surge as much as 191%. 

Final Thoughts on Tilray

Tilray is not a “set-it-and-forget-it” kind of stock. It is an unpredictable player on Wall Street, swinging between thrilling rallies and gut-punching dips. With a 60-month beta of 1.85, volatility is baked into its DNA. Shares recently surged, powered by reclassification chatter and a new partnership, but let’s not forget the widening losses, slowing core sales, and the Nasdaq extension request hanging over TLRY stock.

This story is equal parts promise and volatility, a high-stakes ride where conviction matters more than timing. For risk-takers who can stomach the volatility and trust the growth bets, there’s upside potential. For the cautious, sitting back and watching from the sidelines might be the smarter move in August — at least until the dust settles.

On the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.